Trend Inflation Estimates

US CPI trend inflation estimates from the four models are provided here: graph and excel file. The four models are:

• the UCSV model in Stock and Watson (2007)
• the univariate bounded inflation trend model in Chan, Koop and Potter (2013)
• the bivariate model with bounded inflation trend and NAIRU in Chan, Koop and Potter (2016)
• the UC model augmented with long-run inflation expectations in Chan, Clark and Koop (2018)